Are Buyers about Ready to Gain the Upper Hand?

Tracking stats are numerous and include many categories. But the measure which has changed most year over year is the number of listings under contract. Comparing single family pending listing on January 16 2013 with today’s count gives us an idea of how much demand has fallen over the last 12 months. The table below gives us a good feeling for which cities are faring the best and the worst in holding onto demand in the current market.

  1. Florence -7.0%
  2. Wittmann -8.3%
  3. Sun City West -10.3%
  4. Sun Lakes -14.7%
  5. Cave Creek -17.0%
  6. Eloy -20.0%
  7. New River -22.2%
  8. Waddell -24.1%
  9. Casa Grande -26.0%
  10. Paradise Valley -28.1%
  11. Tempe -28.6%
  12. Wickenburg -28.6%
  13. Scottsdale -31.1%
  14. Apache Junction -31.3%
  15. Goodyear -31.8%
  16. Carefree -33.3%
  17. Tonopah -33.3%
  18. Avondale -34.2%
  19. Buckeye -36.8%
  20. Sun City -39.0%
  21. Arizona City -40.0%
  22. Chandler -41.8%
  23. Glendale -42.2%
  24. Fountain Hills -42.6%
  25. Mesa -43.1%
  26. El Mirage -43.2%
  27. Gilbert -43.8%
  28. Phoenix -43.9%
  29. Laveen -44.0%
  30. Surprise -45.0%
  31. Peoria -49.0%
  32. Queen Creek -49.4%
  33. Litchfield Park -50.0%
  34. Coolidge -50.0%
  35. Maricopa -50.7%
  36. Rio Verde -55.6%
  37. Tolleson -58.8%
  38. Youngtown -59.1%
  39. Anthem -65.1%
  40. Gold Canyon -66.7%

Of course demand is only one side of the equation. However it is striking that we find no city with positive growth in pending listings and 8 cities that have dropped by half or more.

There are lots of list price cuts going on at the moment. In the last 7 days we have seen a total of 2,843 price reductions for active listings across Greater Phoenix and just 256 price increases. The total dollar amount of the reductions was $31.5M and the increases amounted to $4.1M. Compared with the same week in 2013, there were 61.7% more price cuts and 26.2% fewer price increases. In dollar terms, the reductions were not quite so impressive – up 45.2% from the same time last year. Increases were down 24.1% in dollar terms.
This is a far more negative reading of seller confidence than we had in January 2013. Although we had a brief respite from the wave of price cuts between Thanksgiving and New Year we are now back up to the peak levels we saw in late October.

Negotiation power for buyers is probably the best it has been since 2011. Now is the time to consider buying that home you have been considering.

*Many of the above statistics come from the Cromford Report