Higher End Market has Grown Stronger in Phoenix and Scottsdale Area

STRONGEST PART OF THE PHOENIX AREA HOUSING MARKET IS THE HIGH END!

Price Range Annual Change in Active Listings (excluding UCB) Annual Change in Pending Listings Annual Change in Days Inventory Annual Change in Contract Ratio Annual Change in Months of Supply Annual Change in Sales per Month Annual Change in Monthly Average $/SF
$0 – $99,999 -26.3% -66.7% +7.6% -62.8% +30.1% -67.9% +6.7%
$100,000 to $199,999 +35.8% -39.3% +2.4% -59.2% +34.2% -22.5% +11.6%
$200,000 to $399,999 +64.2% -20.1% +6.6% -51.0% +25.6% +17.8% +9.2%
$400,000 to $799,999 +50.6% -6.5% +2.9% -36.2% +22.8% +17.7% +5.4%
$800,000 and above +30.7% +38.3% -1.8% -6.1% +9.3% +18.0% +7.0%

For the range under $100,000 we see the supply of active listings dropping, but sales dropping much faster. So although inventory is not building, the market is very much cooler than this time last year. This has a lot to do with the lower buying interest from investors.

From $100,000 to $199,999 supply is up while sales per month and pending sales are well down. Prices have moved the most in this sector inhibiting buyer interest from both investors and first time buyers. This sector is much cooler than last year.

Between $200,000 and $399,999, we have seen a large increase in active listings and a modest increase in sales. However pending sales are down more than 20% and volume is trending down.

From $400,000 to $799,999 supply is also up sharply from last year but pending sales have not dropped as precipitously as for the sectors under $400,000. Pricing has increased the least in this sector

From $800,000 up is the healthiest sector with more supply but more sales and, unlike the other sectors, far more pending sales. The contract ratio is down only slightly and days of inventory is actually lower. This sector has been helped by the improved availability of jumbo loans. A bull market in stocks has also helped keep demand high in this price range.

The following cities have moved from a seller’s market into the balanced market zone based on having a Cromford Market Index™ for single family homes between 90 and 110.

  • Phoenix (108.8)
  • Mesa (108.0)
  • Peoria (108.2)

It looks like the following will enter a balanced market within the next ten days:

  • Scottsdale (116.1)
  • Chandler (110.5)
  • Glendale (116.0)
  • Goodyear (111.7)
  • Paradise Valley (118.8)

The following have moved from a balanced market into a buyer’s market:

  • Gold Canyon (88.6)

The following are already in buyer’s markets and are tending to get more favorable for the buyer and difficult for sellers:

  • Queen Creek & San Tan Valley (75.5)
  • Tempe (81.2)
  • Maricopa (59.8)
  • Buckeye (87.1)
  • Casa Grande (74.9)
  • Tolleson (85.8)

The Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. The information in this overview is from the Cromford Report.